TOKYO - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's victory in the latest House of Representatives election was a "historic landslide" in which the Liberal Democratic Party alone secured more than two-thirds of the seats.
But precisely because she won such a sweeping mandate, the prime minister must, while holding fast to her convictions, strive to run the government in a realistic and steady manner that takes account of stringent constraints at home and abroad.
The greatest constraints facing the government are "the market" and "U.S.-China relations" under the administration of President Donald Trump.
On the economic front, it has already faced market discipline, with its stance toward active fiscal spending leading to a weaker yen and a decline in Japanese government bond prices, making disciplined fiscal management indispensable.
On the diplomatic front, Japan cannot ignore the relationship between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump has a "G2" view that the United States and China should run the world, and a visit to China by Trump is also scheduled shortly after the prime minister's trip to the United States in March. As the United States seeks stable ties with China, it will become incompatible with this international environment for Japan alone to continue taking an uncompromising stance toward Beijing.
Just as Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni shifted to a more pragmatic course after taking office, Prime Minister Takaichi may also respond cautiously and come to adopt more realistic policies. If so, it would take time, but there is a possibility that deteriorating Japan-China relations could also move toward normalization.
If the prime minister wishes to advance the "strong diplomacy" she advocates, she should place emphasis not only on taking a tough line but also on firmly asserting the importance of fundamental principles such as adherence to international law and rules. Even with Trump, rather than becoming a mere yes-man, if Japan can skillfully convey its view that "international law matters," it will be seen as "Japan is also saying what needs to be said."
The same applies to strengthening defense capabilities and expanding defense spending. Japan must not take a passive stance by framing it as "because the United States demanded it," nor should the debate become one driven solely by figures such as the share of gross domestic product.
Amid a tight fiscal situation, it is important to carefully examine "what Japan needs, why, and to what extent." The same holds for revising the three key national security documents. Beyond the substance of the revisions, the government must also thoroughly flesh out why they are necessary.
The stance of prioritizing fundamental principles also applies to diplomacy toward China. While advancing the "strategic mutually beneficial relationship" with China, Japan should at the same time urge China to abide by rules, including the law of the sea. Japan should also take the lead in regional cooperation in a way that draws China in, so that Japan can become a leader in maintaining peace and stability in East Asia.
On nuclear policy, Japan should not be easily swayed by some arguments such as revisiting the "no introduction" principle. While reaffirming extended deterrence based on the U.S. "nuclear umbrella," it should uphold the three non-nuclear principles. On that basis, under the framework of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Japan's role as the only country to have suffered atomic bombings would be to press nuclear-armed states -- including China, which is strengthening its nuclear arsenal -- to pursue nuclear disarmament.
People who supported the prime minister amid the "Sana-push" phenomenon are by no means hoping for war. They are likely placing their hopes in the "realization of peace" through a new kind of politics. With this landslide victory, the prime minister has come to be seen around the world as a "strong, new female leader." With that in mind, I hope she will pursue steady diplomacy underpinned by fundamental principles.
(Mitoji Yabunaka, born in Osaka Prefecture in 1948, served as director general of the Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau and later as vice minister for foreign affairs at the Foreign Ministry. His publications include "The Realist Case for Avoiding War," among others.)
