TOKYO - Japan's government on Friday acknowledged that its overestimation of rice supplies and delayed response in grasping the situation and releasing emergency stockpiles were to blame for the country's recent rice crisis.
The shortage of rice became apparent around the summer of 2024, caused by supply and demand factors, including a poor harvest due to high temperatures as well as increased consumption by inbound tourists and hoarding by some in preparation for a major earthquake, according to the government.
"Based on the assumption that rice production was sufficient, (the government) was not proactive in gathering information on the state of distribution, which in turn led to price surges," the white paper said.
The shortage prompted the government to release batches of stockpiled rice reserved for emergency use to help ease public concern and lower the retail prices of the Japanese staple.
But the government also admitted that the decision came too late, saying it "failed to dispel concerns among rice wholesalers."
With rice imports by the private sector in 2025 climbing 95-fold from a year earlier to 96,834 tons, the government warned in the annual white paper that domestic production could be hit.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries had estimated that rice demand would decrease amid the country's declining population.
The estimate turned out to be incorrect as a surge in inbound tourism meant more rice was consumed, while the government's first-ever advisory in the summer of 2024 regarding a megaquake in the Nankai Trough along the Pacific coast prompted people to stock up on rice.
In fiscal 2025, rice consumption per person fell 6.1 percent from a year earlier to an average of 4,435 grams per month, a seven-year low, according to a separate industry survey.
Japan saw rice prices temporarily top 4,000 yen ($25) per 5 kilograms at the height of the crisis, which rice wholesales say led households to shift to noodles and bread.
The white paper, approved by the Cabinet of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Friday, is a government report on the current state of and challenges facing the agricultural sector.
The document also noted growing interest overseas in Japanese farm produce, including rice, beef and green tea, with exports of food items rising 12.8 percent to 1.70 trillion yen in 2025.
