TOKYO - Online prediction markets are beginning to emerge in Japan, offering users rewards for forecasting future events while seeking to comply with domestic laws that ban many forms of gambling amid ethical concerns over predictions regarding wars and politics.
Tokyo-based game developer Gumi Inc. launched its Yosoku Hiroba website earlier this month, allowing users to predict outcomes such as the results of Japan's game against Sweden in the World Cup football match this week.
Users receive points for logging in and use the points to make predictions by choosing from the options listed. Those who predict correctly earn reward points called "gold" that can be exchanged for electronic money.
According to those familiar with the industry, in the U.S. prediction markets, where participants can bet money on future events, participants tend to closely research events, leading to forecasts that are often more accurate than those of experts.
Gumi said it is also exploring use of forecast data for business. Company official Yuki Asaka said a prediction of beer sales of a certain maker, for example, could also work as advertising, adding that Yosoku Hiroba website's reward structure was carefully designed to comply with Japanese gambling laws.
Overseas prediction markets have faced criticism for allowing people to bet on wars. A U.S. military member has been indicted for allegedly using confidential information to make hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on whether U.S. forces would be deployed to Venezuela and on other related forecasts.
Gumi creates its own future event questions and excludes wars, crimes and elections from events, but another service in Japan has featured a question asking whether Japan and China will clash militarily by 2027.
Kazuhiro Maeshima, a Sophia University professor specializing in contemporary U.S. politics, warned that betting on wars or politics could sway public opinion in Japan, saying, "Such services need to be operated cautiously, and possible regulation should also be considered."
