TOKYO - For more than half a century, Japan has dreamed of a magnetic levitation train that could whisk passengers between Tokyo and Osaka far faster than the Tokaido Shinkansen bullet trains. That dream is now one step closer -- but also further away than ever.
The massive project to build a maglev shinkansen line through the country's central mountains cleared a major obstacle to move ahead in July, with construction of a key tunnel now set to begin by the year-end. Yet the opening of the line to Nagoya, once targeted for 2027, is now eyed for 2036 at the earliest, and completion of the track to Osaka remains out of sight.
Unprecedented engineering challenges, shifting demographics and other changes since the concept emerged have also made the outlook increasingly uncertain.
DECADES-OLD PROJECT
Research and development for the project began in 1962, and the government finalized a basic plan in 1973 to link Tokyo and Osaka, about 400 kilometers apart, by a new shinkansen line.
After more than 30 years of geological and other surveys, it approved an implementation plan in 2011 for the Linear Chuo Shinkansen project, putting construction costs at 9.03 trillion yen ($55 billion) and calling for trains to run at up to 505 km per hour (314 mph) through tunnels under the country's Southern Alps and other terrains.
It is designed to connect Tokyo's Shinagawa and Nagoya stations in just 40 minutes, less than half the current journey time by the fastest shinkansen, and with Osaka in 67 minutes against around 135 minutes at present.
The national government envisions the line serving as an alternative "trunk artery" to the Tokaido Shinkansen Line in the event the conventional line on the Pacific side is heavily damaged by a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough in the ocean.
It also hopes to create a "vast economic zone" by integrating the three major metropolises of Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka with the faster shinkansen generating diverse human exchanges and business opportunities and attracting foreign investment.
Central Japan Railway Co. plans to initially open the Shinagawa-Nagoya section and extend it to Osaka afterward.
One reason for the delay is that 86 percent of the planned Shinagawa-Nagoya section is made up of tunnels, and construction of one of them, spanning 25 km and three prefectures, was partly blocked from 2017 to 2024 due to opposition from local government over environmental impact concerns, until there was a change in governor.
The route west of Nagoya, meanwhile, is not fixed. A proposed route through Mie and Nara prefectures is currently the subject of an environmental impact assessment and study to narrow down options.
"We are not at a stage where we can state the timing for opening the entire line. We are doing everything we can on construction between Shinagawa and Nagoya," the company says.
TECHNOLOGICALLY FEASIBLE
When the maglev line is finally launched, it would give Japan a type of railway unlike any other in the world.
The trains levitate and run using superconducting magnetic levitation -- a phenomenon in which certain metals when cooled to extremely low temperatures achieve zero electrical resistance.
By contrast, the maglev currently operating commercially in China's Shanghai uses a "normal conducting" system that has electrical resistance.
The technology is considered ready for practical use after Tokyo assessed it in 2017 as having been completed for commercial operations. JR Central has since continued to improve it and lower costs.
The latest test train, the M10, uses a sharkskin-like film to reduce air resistance, while the seats are fixed at a 15-degree recline with no reclining function. Conventional superconducting magnets required cooling to minus 269 C, but the company aims to deploy magnets that can operate at minus 255 C, eliminating the need for liquid helium and simplifying the magnet structure.
The construction method adopted is common for mountain tunnels -- advancing by blasting incrementally and reinforcing the surface with sprayed concrete -- and JR Central is already building new stations and tunnels.
DIGGING INTO TROUBLE
The toughest work is apparently the roughly 25-km Southern Alps tunnel -- up to about 1,400 meters underground.
The tunnel's 8.9-km section in Shizuoka Prefecture, where the previous governor had blocked construction over concerns that tunneling could reduce river water flow and harm the local ecosystem, is expected to take more than 10 years, meaning opening the line to Nagoya would be in 2036 at the earliest.
Further delays are still possible, from issues such as spring water, as problems have already emerged elsewhere along the route.
In Mizunami, Gifu Prefecture, close to Nagoya, spring water gushed during tunnel excavation, causing ground subsidence and drops in well water levels nearby, halting construction. In Tokyo, a road above a tunnel construction site in the Shinagawa area buckled upward.
"We won't know until we dig," a senior official of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism said.
Chikaosa Tanimoto, a professor emeritus at Osaka University specializing in tunnel engineering, said, "Authorities should have been more proactive in assessing damage from the ground uplift" at the Shinagawa construction site, while "JR Central's preliminary surveys and contingency planning were inadequate" in the Mizunami case.
"Some kind of trouble is also possible in the difficult Shizuoka section," he said, adding that all data obtained through monitoring surveys -- including findings unfavorable to construction -- should be disclosed promptly and in full, and that countermeasures must be taken at an early stage.
DREAM DEFERRED
Transport minister Yasushi Kaneko has said, "The maglev will demonstrate its true value when the entire line between Tokyo and Osaka opens." The government has not dropped its goal of opening the whole line as early as 2037, but people involved say it is "already impossible."
Amid surging costs, critics question whether the project still makes economic sense in an aging, shrinking Japan.
Against the 9.03 trillion yen construction cost estimated in 2011 for the whole project, JR Central says the cost for the Shinagawa-Nagoya section alone could rise to 11 trillion yen. The government is supporting the project with 3 trillion yen in long-term, low-interest loans through its fiscal investment and loan program.
Demand is also a concern, with remote work changing travel patterns since the COVID-19 pandemic and Japan's population projected to fall below 100 million by the mid-2050s.
If tickets for the new shinkansen are priced too high, there may not be enough passengers willing to use the service, sceptics say.
Mitsuhiro Miyashita, a senior chief researcher at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, said opening the Shinagawa-Nagoya section would greatly benefit frequent business travelers and tourists, especially around intermediate stations where travel times to major metro areas would be sharply reduced.
But he warned, "If the opening is delayed, municipalities and businesses could face financial strain as returns on upfront investments around stations are pushed back."
"Overreliance on the maglev is risky and plans should avoid excessive dependence," he added.
The technology works and the path is now clear in Shizuoka. But with costs rising and demographics shifting, Japan's dream express remains, for now, still in the tunnel -- with no clear end in sight.
(Nozomi Yanagisawa, Soichiro Tanaka, Hiyori Inagaki and Ryo Moriyama contributed to this report)
