MANILA - Ten years after an international arbitral ruling that found against China's sweeping sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, the Philippines is stepping up efforts to prevent Beijing from solidifying its de-facto control over the Scarborough Shoal, one of the most disputed sites in the sea's waters.
The shoal, which lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, is claimed by Manila as well as China and Taiwan, but it has been under Beijing's control since 2012, with incidents of Chinese coast guard and naval vessels blocking or harassing Philippine civilian and government vessels sailing in the area.
The situation has continued despite the 2016 ruling by an international tribunal at The Hague, prompted by a Philippine complaint, that dismissed China's claims over nearly the entire South China Sea, including the Scarborough Shoal, as lacking legal basis and breaching international law.
In the case of the Scarborough Shoal itself, the ruling concluded that fishermen from the Philippines as well as from China and other countries had long fished at the shoal and had traditional fishing rights in the area. China has refused to accept the tribunal's findings.
"The legacy of the 2016 arbitral award is still unfolding," Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Friday ahead of the 10th anniversary of the ruling on July 12. "The responsibility to build upon this foundation now belongs to all of us, to governments, to diplomats, everyday citizens who believe that peace is best secured through the rule of law."
On the anniversary itself, 14 nations, including the United States, the Philippines and Japan, released a statement reaffirming the ruling, calling it "final, legally binding, and definitive between China and the Philippines with respect to the maritime entitlements and claims" addressed by the tribunal.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro noted that the ruling "has drawn the support and commitment of like-minded partners who are now devoting actual resources, time, and cooperation across a wide range of initiatives -- from maritime security to environmental protection."
A day after the anniversary, meanwhile, China doubled down on its claims, with Qi Dahai, director-general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Department of Treaty and Law, telling a symposium in Hong Kong that China "has indisputable sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea and their adjacent waters."
"The ruling's fallacies on procedural and substantive issues have been continuously exposed and refuted," he said.
Chinese ships fired water cannons toward Philippine Coast Guard vessels near the Scarborough Shoal in September and toward fishing boats near another shoal called Sabina in December that injured three Filipino fishermen.
Although such aggressive behavior has not been seen so far this year, the Chinese coast guard launched inflatable boats to drive fishermen away from the Scarborough Shoal in March and placed a floating platform for marine research at the shoal between late May and mid-June.
Last month, Kyodo News reporters were allowed to board a Philippine Coast Guard plane that flew over the shoal and observed a barrage of radio warnings given by the Chinese military.
"You have intruded into (China's) territorial airspace," the Chinese military said in a radio message. "Leave immediately, otherwise we will take countermeasures."
The Philippine airplane's pilot, who had led similar missions before to document China's activities in the vicinity of the shoal, said the Chinese military had sounded "more aggressive" whenever the plane got close to the shoal.
Roy Vincent Trinidad, a Philippine military spokesman, said on June 23 that the armed forces will keep a "very close watch (on) developments" in the Scarborough, such as construction of new structures, vowing to conduct patrols, including those with allied nations, more frequently.
According to research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, data on ship movements showed a significant increase in the presence of the China Coast Guard at the shoal during the first half of this year, with the monthly average growing to 156 ship-days from 90 ship-days in the same period last year.
"China's activities at Scarborough have entered uncharted territory," the U.S.-based think tank concluded.
Philippine patrols have also increased, with those of the Philippine Coast Guard and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources averaging 43 ship-days per month, compared to 30 ship-days in the first half of last year.
In recent decades, China has taken control of several shoals and reclaimed land in the South China Sea, where Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan also have competing claims that overlap with those of China.
In the Philippine waters, China reclaimed the Mischief Reef after it seized control in 1995, putting up shelters that have now become its largest military outpost in the sea.
Last year, meanwhile, China declared that it had set up a nature reserve covering an area of about 3,500 hectares at the Scarborough Shoal, which it calls Huangyan Dao.
Philippine military chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. on June 8 said, "We will not allow a repeat of what happened before (in which) a small structure later on became an artificial island. We will not let that happen in Scarborough Shoal."
Julio Amador, president of the Manila-based Foundation for the National Interest, said the Philippines should work more closely with other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, particularly those which have territorial claims over the sea, to cope with China and jointly emphasize the 2016 ruling.
The ruling would "lose its value if we do not ourselves observe it strongly," Amador said, adding negotiations over a code of conduct to prevent confrontations in the South China Sea between ASEAN and China, which have not advanced after over two decades, should be also pushed forward.
Chester Cabalza, president of another Manila-based institute, the International Development and Security Cooperation, echoed the view and said, "The mere fact that we (the Philippines) are still insisting for a code of conduct to give us a solution to the big problems" in the South China Sea "gives us hope and good leverage on how to deal with China."
China in 2023 began to disrupt the Philippine vessels more frequently than before following the start of the Marcos presidency, with the new Philippine leader departing from his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte's policy of appeasing Beijing. In response, Marcos launched a "transparency initiative" aimed at exposing China's harassment of Philippine vessels to gain international support for the Philippines' position based on the 2016 ruling.
"China is still afraid of the impact of the 2016 arbitral award...(and) the consequences of the global support given to the Philippines. That's the reason why they are pushing for their gray zone strategy" of behavior that falls short of an armed attack on Philippine vessels, Cabalza said.
The ruling, he said, "definitely" remains "significant and relevant."
"The world has been inspired by the Philippines on how it fought a giant neighbor using international law," he said, adding that neighboring countries are looking into this kind of strategy for their own issues.
