TOKYO - Democrats, set to control both chambers of Congress when the new legislature convenes in January, are likely to pursue artificial intelligence regulation and safety standards in response to the backlash to AI and data centers that played a part in the midterm election results, Stimson Center researcher Robert Manning said.
"They may also be more interested in adopting safety standards with China in the effort to control runaway AI," Manning said in a recent written interview with Kyodo News.
"The impact of the U.S. elections will likely have a big impact on AI policy," he added.
Democrats may also press the administration of President Donald Trump to carry out at least part of a planned $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, Manning pointed out.
"More broadly, the Democrats will push to repair Trump damage to alliances and allies, though their role will be limited," and "the Democrats will posture as tough on Taiwan, so not to be seen as soft," he said.
As for the situation in Ukraine, Manning expects Democrats to push for more military aid to Ukraine, investigate Trump's dealings with Russia and oppose his pro-Russian President Vladimir Putin drive for a deal that would force Ukraine to yield to Putin's demands.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi should maintain her ties with Trump, but she should also strengthen ties with Congress, he said.
"With regard to Japan and the U.S.-Japan alliance, the elections are a net plus, and I see continuity, perhaps less erratic harassment from Trump," Manning said.
Elon Musk and other tech executives spent heavily to stop Democrats but failed miserably, underestimating the depth of public resentment over the market dominance of major technology companies, Manning said.
"There is a lot of uncertainty post-elections. Will Trump be a lame duck or an angry duck? The Democratic sweep yielded such a large majority, that Trump's domestic agenda will be constrained, and rolled back to some extent," he said.
Trump could adopt a combative stance that deadlocks domestic policy or seek to build his legacy through deals with Democrats, he added.
Manning advised senior government officials on global issues while serving at organizations under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and at the State Department.
He is a distinguished fellow with the Strategic Foresight Hub and the China Program at the Stimson Center, where he mostly works on China, emerging technologies and great power competition.
