TOKYO - The summit meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump initially aimed to clearly convey Japan's position amid significant changes in U.S.-China relations. However, the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and the escalating tensions in the Middle East shifted the focus to securing the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump, prioritizing oil price stability, undoubtedly hopes for the deployment of ships by a coalition of the willing, despite some shifts in his statements. He likely hopes Japan, the first country to hold a summit since he called for it, will take the lead in joining the coalition.
Under such circumstances, the prime minister explained the legal constraints on deploying the Self-Defense Forces during the meeting, indicating a willingness to take all possible measures. Countries such as Britain, France, Germany and Italy issued a joint statement shortly before the meeting, expressing readiness to contribute to securing the strait, and the move appears to have helped Takaichi avoid a situation where Japan was strongly pressed on this issue.
However, Trump cited Japan's dependence on the Middle East for over 90 percent of its oil, urging Tokyo to make further contributions. Simply stating that they will "respond under the law" is insufficient and there is a risk of growing dissatisfaction without concrete actions.
Having said that, tanker escort missions during wartime are highly dangerous. The recognition of a "situation threatening national survival" under the security-related laws, which presupposes the exercise of collective self-defense, is a high hurdle. Considering these constraints, dispatching ships under a "situation of international peace and joint response" based on a U.N. resolution, assuming a cease-fire, seems to be the most realistic and low-risk option.
The justification for the deployment would be not merely support for the U.S. military but "dealing with illegal acts by Iran," thus ensuring legitimacy. The recent joint statement condemns Iran's attacks across the Middle East and refers to a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cessation. Japan should take the lead in drafting a subsequent resolution.
If the deployment is realized, logistical support to a coalition of the willing is envisioned. If necessary, mine-sweeping activities under a different legal framework are also possible.
It is also necessary to steadily advance the 80 trillion yen ($500 billion) investment in the United States based on the Japan-U.S. tariff agreement. Its focus will be on areas of interest to the United States, such as expanding U.S. energy production, particularly crude oil, but it is anticipated that there will be situations where profitability must be set aside.
Furthermore, massive investments will not soften demands on the Strait of Hormuz issue. These should be considered separately.
Continued follow-up is essential for future diplomatic strategy. Trump has a strong interest in "deals" with China. While the Taiwan Strait issue was mentioned during this meeting, it cannot be ruled out that it was merely a formality. Maintaining relations through frequent dialogue is crucial.
At the same time, Takaichi must also consider political risks. There is a risk of domestic public backlash against the SDF dispatch. The question is how she will exercise proactive leadership while taking these risks into account, for the sake of Japan's economy and security.
(Tetsuo Kotani, born in 1973, is an expert on international relations who completed doctoral coursework at Doshisha University's Graduate School of Law in 2008. He has served as professor at Meikai University since 2020 and chief research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs.)
