WASHINGTON - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks last year about Tokyo's likely response to a Taiwan contingency represented a "significant shift" for a sitting leader of the country, a U.S. intelligence report said Wednesday.
The report said that Takaichi's explanation that a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan should be recognized as a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan is worthy of attention, as it could provide legal justification for the country's involvement.
The Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community noted that China, which regards Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory, seems concerned that Takaichi's November parliamentary remarks will reinforce the self-ruled island's independence movement.
Takaichi argued that her views were nothing new and consistent with the Japanese government's interpretation of the phrase under its 2015 security legislation, which could prompt the country to exercise the right to collective self-defense or defend allies even when it is not directly attacked.
But China has taken aggressive action against Japan, such as curbing trade and canceling cultural events, and the U.S. intelligence community may also view her remarks as a departure from the government's established position.
"Beijing probably will escalate to additional coercive economic measures if tensions increase," said the report, compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
It added that China is expected to ramp up military and coast guard activity around the Senkakus, a small group of uninhabited islets controlled by Japan but claimed by Beijing, increasing the risk of "accidents or miscalculation leading to inadvertent escalation."
The U.S. intelligence community's annual report was released a day before Takaichi's summit with President Donald Trump in Washington, during which a more severe security environment around Japan and Taiwan is likely to top the agenda.
The report, analyzing threats in various regions, said the Chinese military is believed to be "making steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter -- and, if necessary, defeat -- U.S. military intervention."
The intelligence community, however, says it believes China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, adding that Beijing prefers to achieve unification with the democratic island without the use of force.
It said Chinese officials know that "an amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of U.S. intervention."
